AGP Executive Report

El Niño Preparations: The Philippines’ proposed 2027 budget adds ₱10 billion for farmer and fisherfolk assistance, plus funding for irrigation, fertilizer, farm roads and climate-resilient production. Tanzania is also directing agencies to deliver seeds, fertilizer and advice ahead of forecast El Niño rains. Biofuel Demand: The EPA proposes reallocating refinery exemptions to offset lost biofuel demand, a move supporters say could protect markets for farmers and ethanol producers. Harvest Costs: Minnesota diesel prices remain above $6 a gallon—nearly $3 higher than a year ago—squeezing farmers as harvest begins. Corn Market: USDA’s sharp yield increase, including an 11-bushel-per-acre jump for Nebraska, surprised traders and intensified scrutiny of the October forecast as corn prices fell. Post-Harvest Losses: Afghanistan’s lack of cold storage puts crops at risk; an analyst estimates the country loses a quarter of its agricultural products. Food Security: Drought across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia has left more than 13 million people facing severe hunger after repeated failed rainy seasons damaged crops and livestock.

Trade and Prices: Kazakh sunflower farmers are proposing a ban on Russian imports, warning that cheaper supplies could depress prices as the domestic harvest proceeds. Grain growers also face weak yields and prices. Drought Readiness: El Niño warnings are prompting calls to conserve water and switch to dryland crops, while drought is already damaging farms in India and South Africa. Crop Resilience: Researchers in Türkiye have developed three drought-tolerant wheat varieties after more than a decade of breeding; registration and distribution to farmers are still ahead. Farm Costs: US states are easing diesel and transport rules as harvest expenses climb. Water and Power: Telangana farmers protested power cuts threatening irrigated paddy and damaging pumps, while Uganda’s push for solar irrigation faces questions over cost and access. Climate Adaptation: Taiwan’s tea revival pairs historic terraces with drip irrigation, soil sensors and resilient varieties as changing weather makes production harder.

Drought and Crops: El Niño is shrinking vegetable harvests in Mindanao and pushing up market prices. In Telangana, officials warn farmers to avoid water-intensive paddy unless supplies are assured, while Tamil Nadu urges growers to insure Samba rice against rainfall losses. Harvest and Markets: Missouri farmers report discolored soybeans but steady yields; corn quality concerns and harvest reports are shaping prices. Rain could also slow Nebraska’s harvest later this month. Trade and Growth: Tanzania is promoting its avocados to international buyers as production and exports rise. A new climate-controlled rice storage hub in Guyana aims to help farmers hold paddy for better prices. Farm Costs: Michigan has temporarily allowed certain farm vehicles to use dyed diesel on public roads, easing pressure from high fuel prices during harvest. Farmer Support: India plans a joint committee to address sugarcane growers’ complaints about rising costs, mill deductions and support prices.

El Niño Preparedness: Camarines Sur has launched a 30-day plan to secure water and protect farms ahead of a potentially severe El Niño through early 2027. In Telangana, a university study estimates Kharif crop losses at Rs 20,000 crore and warns that water shortages could sharply shrink winter planting. Harvest Damage: Heavy rain flooded Punjab mandis, submerging freshly harvested paddy; farmers estimate losses of at least Rs 20 crore in Fazilka. Conflict and Crops: Gaza’s olive harvest is badly hit, with one farmer reporting yields down 70% to 80% as damaged groves remain inaccessible and supplies run short. Farm Costs: Maryland has eased state restrictions on dyed diesel for agricultural vehicles as record fuel prices squeeze producers during harvest. Livestock: Vietnam has completed a 300,000-dose commercial African swine fever vaccine order for the Philippines. Farm Support: Kyrgyzstan is offering subsidized winter-grain seeds and discounted sugar-beet harvesting equipment.

Water Resilience: A solar-powered irrigation project in Leyte will supply year-round water to 87 farmers across 70 hectares, cutting reliance on fuel pumps as El Niño threatens dry conditions. Input Costs: U.S. farmers face diesel prices up more than 67% since February, while some fertilizer costs have doubled, squeezing harvest profits and next season’s budgets. Market Support: Namibia has set aside N$70 million to buy surplus maize, but the government says it needs another N$50 million to purchase all available grain. Women in Agriculture: Maharashtra plans certificates recognizing women farmers even when they do not own land, potentially improving access to credit, water and farm services. Crop Innovation: Uttar Pradesh growers snapped up all 200,000 buds of new sugarcane variety CoS.23232 in five minutes, drawn by promises of earlier maturity and higher yields. Olive Harvest: Palestinian farmers in the West Bank face renewed disruption, with reported crop theft, damage to trees and attacks on harvesters.

Harvest Pressure: Saskatchewan’s harvest is 82% complete after a week of favourable weather, while Iowa farmers are racing to make up for rain delays before more wet weather and winter arrive. Weather Damage: Heavy rain and winds in Nepal have soaked or flattened paddy, sugarcane and vegetable crops, threatening quality and yields. In India, the government cut its 2026–27 foodgrain target by 2.63 million tonnes amid drought and El Niño concerns. Water Security: Solar-powered irrigation in Leyte, Philippines, will supply year-round water to 70 hectares and help 87 farmers reduce pumping costs. In Telangana, farmers protested over water shortages as crops dry up. Farm Safety: Nigeria’s NAFDAC warned of illegal banned pesticides, reporting seizures worth more than 800 million naira in 2025.

Harvest Under Pressure: Excess rain and flooding have left Manitoba farmers facing their worst harvest in years, with one producer able to harvest only about 60% of his fields. Saskatchewan is 82% complete, still behind average, as heavy rain threatens crops left in the field. Fuel Costs: Diesel remains near record highs during harvest. Emergency measures easing restrictions on dyed fuel offer farmers some relief, but costs remain steep. Drought and Water: Maharashtra farmers are seeking urgent aid for drought-hit crops, while Telangana officials warn El Niño could strain irrigation and power supplies. Food Safety: Nigeria’s NAFDAC says bean samples contained pesticide residues above safety limits and is stepping up enforcement. Taylor Farms will stop selling U.S. and Canadian iceberg lettuce harvested or processed in Mexico during the rainy season, after a deadly Cyclospora outbreak. Farm Technology: Drones are helping Andhra Pradesh growers tackle labour shortages and cut spraying time; the state offers an 80% purchase subsidy.

Olive Harvest Under Attack: Palestinian officials reported 19 attacks across the West Bank, including assaults on olive pickers and the burning or uprooting of trees. Drought Emergency: A central team is assessing crop losses in Maharashtra’s Marathwada, where seasonal rainfall reached just 65% of average and reservoir storage has fallen to 31%. Farmers are seeking compensation of up to ₹60,000 per acre. Storm Damage: Heavy rain and wind across western Nepal flooded cut paddy and left some harvested rice sprouting in fields, while hill crops were also damaged. Harvest Costs: Maryland and Idaho are among states easing dyed-diesel restrictions to help farmers manage fuel costs, though the relief is temporary and its impact remains uncertain. Crop Markets: Losses in Himachal Pradesh have tightened apple supplies and lifted Kashmiri apple prices by as much as 35%. Resilience and Technology: Ghana has begun a 175-hectare water project expected to support 220 farmers, while research institute CSIR-CRI trained more than 100 farmers and extension officers in greenhouse tomato production.

Malaysia’s Paddy Support: Budget 2027 sets aside RM2.62 billion for paddy farmers, including about RM4,300 per hectare in assistance and a doubled harvesting incentive. FOMCA says funding must deliver higher rice production and affordable prices. U.S. Crop Outlook: USDA raised its corn estimate to 16.033 billion bushels, surprising markets and sending corn futures sharply lower; soybean production was also revised up. Separate ARC and PLC payments are expected to total a record $13.8 billion for 2025. Fuel Costs: Missouri temporarily widened access to tax-free dyed diesel on roads as high fuel costs squeeze farmers and harvesters. Water and Climate: Yakima Valley growers secured October irrigation after welcome September rain, while Okanagan growers say crop insurance payouts fall short as smoke and extreme weather threaten harvests. Harvest Risks: Iowa farmers are watching for field fires as combines return to work; Palestinian olive harvesters faced attacks and equipment damage in the West Bank.

El Niño Threat: NIA Bicol is adjusting planting calendars, rotating irrigation and promoting short-duration crops as drought threatens water supplies. In Northern Samar, dry conditions have affected 917 farmers and caused an estimated ₱27 million in crop losses; Lope de Vega has declared a state of calamity. Rising Costs: U.S. farmers face diesel prices up more than 67% since February and fertilizer prices that have doubled for some inputs. USDA has confirmed a record $13.8 billion in farm-program payments, while temporary dyed-diesel exemptions offer only limited relief. Harvest Watch: Saskatchewan’s harvest is 82% complete and Manitoba’s is 65%, but wet fields continue to delay parts of the U.S. corn and soybean harvest. Farm Innovation: A new UK robotics hub will help food and farming businesses adopt technologies such as automated fruit pickers, as growers seek ways to manage labor shortages.

Water and Crops: With El Niño threatening water supplies in the Philippines’ Bicol region, irrigation officials are adjusting planting schedules, rationing water and promoting short-duration crops. Freeze Relief: New Jersey Rep. Josh Gottheimer proposed grants for growers hit by an April freeze that caused an estimated $300 million in agricultural losses across 13 states; a separate bill would develop crop insurance for freeze damage. Harvest: Saskatchewan is 82% done, still behind its five- and 10-year averages after wet weather delayed fieldwork. Manitoba’s harvest reached 65% by Oct. 6 as drier conditions helped crews catch up. Farm Costs: Diesel prices remain a heavy burden. A federal tax break of 24.4 cents per gallon offers limited relief, while North Carolina diesel prices have climbed 72% in a year. Soil Health: Ethiopian researchers report improved yields from soil-management work using amendments, compost and biofertilizers to address acidity, salinity and waterlogging.

El Niño Damage: Drought has cost Bohol farmers an estimated ₱173.7 million, with rice accounting for most losses; officials are preparing cloud seeding. In Northern Samar, dry conditions have affected 917 farmers and 269 hectares, prompting a state of calamity. Farm Costs: Canadian farmer Michael Decock says soaring diesel prices make it uneconomic to recover some rain-damaged hay, while U.S. growers say temporary diesel-tax relief offers little help against record fuel costs. Crop Pressures: British potato growers report smaller harvests after heat and drought, raising concerns about the cost and viability of future crops. In Ireland, 676 farms stopped growing tillage crops this year amid low returns and difficult conditions. Trade: Nigerian opposition leader Atiku Abubakar says the agricultural trade balance swung from a ₦740 billion surplus to a ₦56 billion deficit in a year, while exports fell 33.3%; he blames government policy and rising costs.

Fuel Costs: Farmers and truckers say President Trump’s dyed-diesel order offers limited relief as U.S. diesel averages $6.30 a gallon, more than 70% above last year. Many farmers already qualify for the fuel, while state-by-state rules complicate its use. Farm Investment: UAE-based Elite Agro Holding announced Dhs660 million in projects across Mauritania, Morocco and the UAE, spanning more than 9,300 hectares and including a new blueberry operation. Sugar Industry: The Sugar Council welcomed Coca-Cola’s pledge to use Negros-produced sugar but urged the company to source Filipino sugar nationwide to support growers and the wider industry. Climate Risks: A strengthening El Niño threatens maize and bean harvests across southern Africa, while drought in Karnataka has devastated crops and pushed the state to seek federal aid. Seeds and Research: USDA announced a $180 million seed initiative aimed at strengthening U.S. supply and supporting crop breeding; India and Ghana also signed a five-year agricultural research and technology-sharing agreement.

Diesel Relief & Harvest Costs: In the US Midwest and South, President Trump’s executive order and several governors’ moves are loosening rules on tax-free red-dyed diesel for farmers and ranchers during harvest, but farmers still report diesel near or above $6/gal and warn margins are getting crushed. Fuel-to-Food Pressure: A South Africa report says higher diesel is already working its way from tractors and trucks to supermarket prices. Water Security & El Niño: India’s water minister called for Centre-state coordination and a “circular water economy,” while Kenya is accelerating rainwater harvesting ahead of El Niño, and southern Madagascar braces for renewed hunger as aid cuts and inflation bite. Crop & Input Updates: Dhanuka Agritech launched Fujita systemic fungicide for rice blast control in India. Farm Policy vs Reality: Commentaries from Kenya and elsewhere argue agriculture transformation must move from promises to practical farmer outcomes. Local Farming Resilience: Nepal’s paddy farmers in Kanchanpur are using phone forecasts to time harvest, and Uganda’s MPs were urged to turn climate talk into action. Ag Tech & Livestock: China is pushing AI and “high-quality” livestock development as pork demand peaks.

Diesel Relief for Harvest: President Trump signed an order letting dyed/red diesel be used on highways through 2027, while deferring the federal highway diesel tax—aimed at easing record fuel costs for farmers and grain trucking. State Action in Iowa: Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds also suspended penalties tied to dyed diesel on public roads for specific farm product hauling, running through Feb. 2, 2027. Farmer Stress Signals: A Purdue/CME survey found higher input costs became the top concern for U.S. farmers in September, with sentiment weakening as financial outlooks slid. El Niño Impacts Water and Crops: In the Philippines, Bohol reported P173.69M in drought losses and is preparing cloud seeding; in Uganda, MPs were urged to focus on preventing climate disasters. Tech for Smarter Farming: Malaysia’s AI crop app helps farmers diagnose issues from photos and choose pesticides more accurately, while Illinois researchers are building an AI robot to detect soybean diseases earlier. Seed Security Push: USDA announced a $180M Seed Sovereignty Initiative to protect and sequence U.S. plant genetic resources.

El Niño food-security planning: The Philippines’ DA says it has buffer stocks to cover Super El Niño through March 2027, while rolling out solar irrigation, pumps and biofertilizers and coordinating with labor agencies for farmers unable to plant. Drought response in India: India’s Centre has formed a team to assess Maharashtra’s drought-hit talukas and speed central relief, as farmers report crop losses and cattle distress. Water-smart farming advice: DA Mimaropa urged rain-fed farmers to conserve water, keep irrigation systems clean, and boost soil moisture with organic matter and biofertilizers as El Niño looms. Diesel relief and harvest logistics (US): Missouri issued a temporary dyed-diesel and weight-cap waiver for farm shipments through Oct. 30, while farmers across the Midwest continue pushing for broader diesel cost relief during harvest. Crop and market signals: Corn and soybeans slipped on dry-weather harvest pressure in the US Midwest, while South Africa’s winter wheat harvest is forecast to hit an eight-year low, likely lifting imports. On-farm innovation: A Massachusetts farm won a solar farmer award for agrivoltaics, growing crops beneath panels while powering farm operations. Residue and environment: Punjab promoted school carpooling to cut smog, and Bathinda’s village launched free straw baling to curb stubble burning.